Grainy Insights: A wheat and corn blog

  Impacts of El Niño on crop yield anomalies for four crops Impacts of La Niña on crop yield anomalies for four crops . The El Ni ñ o that we have experienced in 2023-24 has now reached its peak and is on the decline, there are signs indicating that it will transit into neutral conditions in the April-June month (Becker, 2024). El Niño had its peak in December and is one of the five strongest ever on record, together with climate change this has fueled the record high temperatures and extreme events (WMO, 2024). In a report from WMO, the World Meteorological Organization, it is stated that there is a 60% chance of neutral conditions in April and June. There are chances that La Niña is developing later in the year, but the odds of that happening are currently uncertain. El Niño happens roughly every two to seven years, typically enduring for nine to 12 months. This natural climate phenomenon is characterized by elevated ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical ...

Naveen Thurkal and Mei Mei Cgu from Reuters (2024) wrote in March that China's wheat imports from Australia for the two first months of the year, January and February, has nearly quadrupled since the same time last year. The trend should continue even though Beijing canceled or postponed 1 million tons of Australian wheat. China is the largest farm good buyer, and they will remain near record highs despite a recent wave of cancellations as lower global prices and domestic output leads to a lack of purchases.  The cancellations, coupled with those affecting approximately 500,000 tons of U.S. wheat, sparked worries about diminishing Chinese demand. Given its significant influence in global agriculture markets, this downturn could potentially trigger a decrease in prices. However, traders and analysts argue that the cancellations are unlikely to affect overall demand significantly. They suggest that lower wheat prices will stimulate buying activity, especially with additional governm...