Wheat and Corn trends, an global outlook for 2023/2024

In the 2023/2024 period, wheat usage for food sees a decrease of 10 million bushels according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASADE-645) report, released on February 8th, 2024, outlines a stable supply outlook for U.S. wheat, with lower domestic utilization, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. The projected season average farm price remains steady at $7.20 per bushel. For the non-US readers 1 bushel equals 27 kg of wheat. 


Globally, there's an uptick in wheat supplies, consumption, and trade, although with a decrease in trading stocks. This surge in supplies is attributed to heightened production in Iraq and Argentina. Global consumption has risen by 1.1 million tons, primarily driven by increased usage in India, where wheat trade is being leveraged to tackle price inflation. Additionally, global trade has increased by 1.2 million tons. 


In February 2023/2024, the U.S. corn outlook indicates reduced usage in food, seed, and industrial sectors, alongside larger ending stocks. Notably, there's a substantial reduction, around 10 million bushels, in corn used for glucose and dextrose production. Corn ending stocks have increased by 10 million bushels since January 2024, with producers receiving an average price of $4.80 per bushel. For the non-US readers 1 bushel equals 25 kg of corn.


Globally, corn production for 2023/2024 is forecasted to be 3.8 million bushels lower compared to previous estimates, with ending stocks also down from January levels. Major shifts in global trade include higher projected corn exports from countries such as Ukraine and Pakistan, contributing to a decrease of 3.2 million tons in global corn ending stocks, now at 322.1 million tons.



Source: United States Department of Agriculture (February 8, 2024). World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0224.pdf

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